Imagine signing a superstar to a massive contract, only to watch them fumble in their debut season – it's the kind of drama that keeps baseball fans on the edge of their seats! Despite these initial hiccups, nine free-agent deals from the 2024-25 offseason might still hit home runs in the long run. Big free-agent signings are all about making waves right away, with teams expecting immediate sparks. But when those early performances fall flat, the scrutiny ramps up, and fans start questioning if it's all worth it.
And this is the part most people miss: A rocky first year doesn't have to doom an entire pact. These nine players faced disappointing outings after inking their multiyear agreements, yet there's plenty of time for them to turn things around. With 2026 on the horizon, they'll have a shot at rewriting their stories. Ready to dive in? Let's break it down player by player, with some extra context to make sense of the stats and strategies for newcomers to the game.
First up, Jack Flaherty, the right-handed pitcher now with the Tigers. He bounced back brilliantly in 2024, posting a solid 3.17 ERA (that's Earned Run Average, basically a measure of how many runs he allowed per nine innings – lower is better) and a 5.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio while splitting time between Detroit and the Dodgers. Despite that, free agency didn't treat him as favorably as hoped, likely because of durability concerns and his weaker showings from 2020 to 2023. He settled for a two-year deal back with Detroit, including an opt-out after 2025. This past season, though? He took a step back with a 4.64 ERA and 3.19 K/BB, but he opted into $20 million for 2026 to stay put. No matter what happens with Tarik Skubal (another key starter), the Tigers will rely on Flaherty to anchor their rotation – a classic case of second chances in baseball.
Next, Jeff Hoffman, the relief pitcher for the Blue Jays. His path to recovery might be the toughest of all. After a mixed regular season as Toronto's closer, he shone in October, almost clinching the World Series title in Game 7 – just two outs away from ending 31 years of drought since 1993. But one fateful pitch changed everything: a game-tying home run off the bat of the Dodgers' Miguel Rojas. The Blue Jays are holding steady with him for now, but that memory? It's not going anywhere anytime soon. But here's where it gets controversial: Should a player be defined by one mistake, or is redemption possible in a sport full of high-stakes moments?
Then there's Sean Manaea, the lefty starter for the Mets. He signed a two-year, $28 million deal in January 2024 with an opt-out, built on a standout 2024 campaign. True to form, he opted out and re-signed for a bigger three-year, $75 million contract. Unfortunately, his second year bombed – injuries sidelined him, and he ended with a 5.64 ERA over 60.2 innings, contributing to the Mets' rotation woes that tanked their playoff push in the second half. With options galore for their staff in 2026 (maybe even more additions before the offseason ends), Manaea's hefty deal gives him a solid shot at redemption as he aims for a comeback.
Tyler O'Neill, the outfielder for the Orioles, had a tough go in 2025 amid a career peppered with injuries and ups and downs. Coming off a hot 2024 with the Red Sox (31 home runs and a 135 OPS+, which shows offensive production above average), he inked a three-year, $49.5 million deal to replace Anthony Santander. But Baltimore got a .199/.292/.392 slash line, just nine homers, and a 92 OPS+ over 54 games, plus multiple IL stints, helping drag the team into a disappointing year. For beginners, OPS+ compares a player's on-base plus slugging to the league average – under 100 means below par.
Joc Pederson, the designated hitter for the Rangers, was brought in to fix a big hole: Texas DHs had the worst OPS in MLB at .584 in 2024. His two-year, $37 million deal? It led to another cellar-dwelling .594 OPS in 2025, with Pederson himself at .614 over 96 games, including a franchise-worst 0-for-41 skid – a far cry from his .850 OPS with the Giants and D-backs from 2022-24. At 33, he's exercising his $18.5 million option for 2026, so he'll get every chance to prove his bat can still sing.
Anthony Santander, the outfielder for the Blue Jays, turned a monster 2024 with the Orioles (44 homers, 131 OPS+) into a five-year, $92.5 million pact. But Year 1 was a disaster: a slow start, left shoulder injury sidelining him until late September, only six homers and a .565 OPS in 54 games, plus a back issue in the playoffs. Toronto clinched the AL East and reached the World Series without him, but they're banking on his return to form in '26.
Tanner Scott, the relief pitcher for the Dodgers, saw his $72 million deal flop hard in 2025 – 11 home runs allowed, 10 blown saves, and a 4.74 ERA over 61 games. Just a year later, LA shelled out $69 million for Edwin Díaz to close, which says volumes about Scott's struggles. Yet, with three years left, he could bounce back to his 2024 All-Star level, creating one of baseball's top late-game tandems. This is the part most people miss: How much pressure do teams put on closers, and is one bad year enough to write off a reliever?
Luis Severino, the right-handed starter for the Athletics, signed the team's richest deal ever at the time (three years, $67 million, now beaten by Tyler Soderstrom's $86 million extension). Hired to lead the rotation, he instead grabbed headlines for griping about their temporary Sacramento stadium and trade rumors, while posting a 4.54 ERA over 29 starts. With a young offense ready to explode, the A's need their pitching to step up for playoffs in 2026 – starting with Severino.
Finally, Christian Walker, the first baseman for the Astros. After ditching José Abreu's struggling deal, Houston signed Walker to three years and $60 million. His 2025 wasn't as abysmal as Abreu's 2023-24, but he slipped to a 97 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement, measuring overall value). Still, he hit 17 homers in his last 70 games, hinting at the power that made him a D-backs standout from 2022-24.
So, what do you think – are these deals destined for glory, or just sunk costs? Do you believe in second chances for big-money players, or should teams hold them more accountable? Share your takes in the comments; I'd love to hear if you agree, disagree, or have your own takes on baseball's riskiest investments!
